Expert Derby Picks and Tips

Common Bets to Avoid

Overhyped Favorites: The biggest favorite tends to have odds out of line with their chance of winning. Too many people will bet on the favorite which means that you should probably not do the same thing. Even if it wins, it may not be good mathematically sound bet to make.

The Biggest Long Shot: The odds for the biggest long shot should be even longer than you see, because lots of people take a chance on a big pay day. You’re paying too much at 30-1 for what you should be getting. Again, it’s not a bet you’d make money on in the long run.

Post Position Seven: People just like to bet on lucky number seven, regardless of horse quality. This effect might sound silly, but it does matter. People just like to say ‘give me a hundred bucks on seven, moving the odds against you. Seven might be a lucky number, but it’s not a good bet come post time.

Gray Horses: People bet on gray horses because they visually stand out, but they aren’t any faster. For the most part, the horses we see in races are brown, and the rare gray-colored ones tend to get bet on more than they should be. Avoid them because their odds are skewed against you.